Disappointment risk


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Daily Outlook – 9 July 2020

By: Andria Pichidi

NO fresh trigger for markets as virus developments remain in focus and global tensions with China over Hong Kong are growing. 
Stocks up due to Chinese outperformance – Investors continued to place faith in policy support and shrugged off simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing. The USD steadied.
-U.S. has 3 million confirmed cases. 

-United Airlines has warned that it will cut nearly half of its workforce 
Australia suspense HK extradition deal  – offers visas New Zealand to review its relationship settings with Hong Kong – on extradition, export controls, travel advice
AMLO meets Trump – reboot US-MEXICO Relations – 600B trade relationship, USMCA celebration dinner
Nikkei has moved up 0.6% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.8%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 1.2% and 0.6% respectively and U.S. futures are also coming up from overnight lows, as Asian markets post broad gains. 
German trade numbers, which were released at the start of the session and showed exports rising 9.0% m/m, less than hoped after the -24.0% m/m contraction in the previous month. Eurozone sa trade surplus lifted to EUR 7.5 bln.

EUR – spikes to R1 and the 1.1370 level.
JPY – flattened at 107.20-107.30 area as both yen and USD struggle. 
GBP – up to 1.2645 – following the UK government’s detailing of fiscal support measures.
CAD –  sustained 1.35000 floor as Oil remains choppy 

GOLD –   sideways after $1,821 high. – Nearly $40 billion flowed into gold-backed exchange-traded funds in the first half of the year, topping the previous annual record and highlighting robust investor demand for precious metals during the coronavirus pandemic. 

USOIL – stuck at PP $ 40.70 

TODAY:  Jobless claims in focus!
Biggest mover – GBPUSD (UP  by 0.26%). The pair broke 1.26 level, trading currently below R1 at 1.2645.  Intraday momentum indicators are strongly positive, with RSI crossing the 70, Parabolic SAR below the price the past 4 hours, and  MACD extended above the signal line. The fast MAs are aligned higher.  ATR for H1 at 0.0021 and Daily ATR at 0.010

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