U.S. markets are closed for the July 4

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Daily Outlook – 3 July 2020

By: Andria Pichidi

U.S. markets are closed for the July 4 NFP helped semtiment Bond markets in Asian traded mixed, while stock markets are holding on to modest gains Most indices are off session highs, but still in positive territory. 
 
Overnight 
Final services PMIs out of Japan and China confirmed the strong improvements in June, with activity in China expanding at the fastest rate in more than a decade.
The sales in Australia rebounded as shops re-opened. 
A nearly 55k jump in new U.S. Covid-19 infections dampened sentiment in quiet markets. 
German Bundestag officially backed ECB bond purchases. – PSPP program – This gives a lift to EU Bonds and Stocks.
 
GER30 up but below week’s high, alongside slight losses in US futures as the sharp rise in fresh Covid-19 infections in the US starts to look worrying. Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
 
EUR – below PP at lows 1.1200 area, while a bearish cross has been spotted between 20- and 50- hour SMA. S1 at 1.1206, PP at 1.1254
JPY – steady below PP, at mid 107 area. S1 at 107.28 and R1 at 107.68
GBP – bouncing between, 1.2440-1.2480 (PP) 
AUD – supported by data. Above PP at 0.6930. R1 at 0.6952.
NZD – 5th day to the upside.  0.6535 the next R1.   BITCOIN – 

GOLD –   retreated from its top $1,800 and currently at 1,765-1,767 area
USOIL – is dodging the trend. Steady at $40 
 
TODAY:  Data releases today focus on EU, German and UK PMIS – quite day!
 
Biggest mover – NZDJPY and USDMXN (by 0.20% move). The USDMXN declines for the 4th day in a row after reversing from 23.22 highs. The outlook intraday and in medium-term remains negative. Intraday momentum indicators are negatively configured, with RSI at 28, MACD extending further below the neutral zone and signal line and fast Mas aligned lower. ATR for H1 at 0.037 and Daily ATR at 0.38


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