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Daily Outlook – 30 June 2020
By: Andria Pchidi
A buy the dip mentality remains at play for stocks. – FOMO, TINA, MOMO are still applicable
Asian stocks moved broadly higher, to post the best quarter since 2009 as investors continue to buy into the recovery story, despite warnings from IMF and others that it will be a long way back to pre-virus activity levels. Higher than expected jump in Japan’s jobless number and China’s official manufacturing PMI. Industrial production numbers for May were also weaker than feared.
GER30 is posting a gain of 0.4% the UK100 future is down -0.14% and US futures are also struggling to hold on to earlier gains. Due to fresh restrictions in the US and a new regional lockdown in the UK. There are reports of fresh accelerated spending plans in the U.K. UK Q1 GDP unexpectedly revised down to -2.2% q/q from -2.0% q/q
USD Index – retests 19-day high at 97.68, reversing more than 38.2% of May’s down leg. R2 at 97.88 and PP 97.35
EUR – down to 1.12 lows as USD strengthens S2 at 1.1176 and PP 1.1250
JPY – reversed from 107.87 to 107.70 area Currently consolidating between PP (107.55) and 107.95 (R1)
GBP – below PP at 1.2326, with S1 and S2 at 1.2235 and 1.2175. – Bearish cross of 50- and 20-day EMA
AUD – ranging below 0.6900 level as there are prospects that fast activity will resume keeping
AUD supported. Currently at 0.6850 with Support at 0.6838
NZD – retests the lower barrier of its 4-day range at 0.6400
CAD – at 20-day high and 4th day above 200DMA, but lower for the session at 1.3650. BITCOIN – holds in the 9000 area.
GOLD – holding at 1,765-1,775 area
USOIL – bounced to four-session highs of $39.89 on the back of a surging Wall Street, and generally risk-on conditions. Resistance holds at $40
TODAY: Eurozone inflation for June, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, US Consumer Confidence Speeches: BoE Haldane speech, Treasury Sec Mnuchin speech, ECB De Guindo, Fed’s Brainard, and Fed’s Chair Powell
Biggest mover – EURUSD (UP by 0.44%). The pair fell back from overnight highs. It managed to break S1 at 1.1208. The fast MA’s aligned lower while is moving below all SMA’s. Momentum indicators turn lower with RSI at 36, Stochastic at 22 and 24, however, MACD is negative but remain close to the neutral zone. ATR for H1 at 0.0011 and Daily ATR at 0.0089
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