FX Update – June 29 – Softer USD to start the week

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EURUSD, H1

By: Stuart Cowell

The Dollar has traded mostly softer so far today. Asian stock markets have tumbled, though US equity index futures have posted moderate gains, rebounding a little after closing quite sharply in the red on Wall Street on Friday. The Yen concurrently traded with a neutral-to-softer bias, despite the risk-off backdrop in regional equity markets, which were largely viewed as a catch-up trade to the drop in North American markets on Friday. Weekend news showed a continuing vault higher in new coronavirus cases in the US, which is forcing some states to reconsider their reopening plans. New Zealand prime minister Ardern also said that it is “untenable” to open up borders at this time. More positively, a candidate vaccine being developed in China has received special military drug approval after passing clinical trials.

Among the main currencies, EURUSD floated to a five-day peak at 1.1267 as the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex ebbed to a five-day low at 97.15, which is near the halfway point of last week’s range. USDJPY edged out an intraday low at 107.38, with the pair remaining well within its Friday range. EURJPY lifted to a six-day high. AUDJPY gained modestly, but remained within its Friday low and high. USDCAD declined moderately, to a 1.3645 low, remaining above Friday’s nadir at 1.3625. Front-month USOil futures fell over 2% to a four-day low at $37.52, whilst Gold continued in positive territory but is capped at $1774.20 so far today and currently trades down at the $1770.00 zone. The daily pivot point resides at $1763.00.

Ahead this week, the calendar is busy across the globe with May and June economic data, which are likely to further evidence the strong rebound from the April lockdown trough. The data may be somewhat overlooked by markets with primary focus falling on the infection rate of the coronavirus, amid worries of double-dip recession, or at least a post-rebound growth slump. Note that US markets will close on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.


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