Focus on risk sentiment


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Daily Outlook – 29 June 2020

By: Andri aPichidi

Stock markets remained under pressure during Asia. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.5% and -0.8% respectively, Topix and Nikkei have lost -1.59% and 1.95% respectively with US futures outperforming and fluctuating.  New cases continue to spike, particularly in the US, with new clusters also emerging elsewhere, highlighting that disruptions are likely to continue to some extend. Numbers are also rising in Australia and New Zealand and a new cluster of cases near Beijing prompted fresh lockdowns. German top judge: it is up to Bundesbank to make a decision on bond purchases ECB last week released some documentation justifying its extension of the QE program. China: Covid-19 vaccine received special military drug approval – half-million in strict lockdown meanwhile. “US irresponsible”
USDIndex – down within 97 territories (200-hour SMA). S12 at 97 and PP  97.43
EUR – up forming an ascending triangle in the daily chart. Above R2 at 1.1265 breaking 20-DMA.
JPY – fell to 107. Currently ay PP 107.06 with S1 at 106.89 and R1 at 107.35 
GBP – sustains a floor at 1.2315. Currently northwards at 1.2387, with R1 1.2411 and PP 1.2360.  
AUD – ranging below 0.6900 level as there are prospects that fast activity will resume keeping AUD supported. Currently at 0.6885, with R1 at 0.6890
NZD – higher rebounding from 0.6400 and currently above PP
CAD –   at 20-day high and 4th day above 200-DMA, but lower for the session at 1.3650.
BITCOIN – lower at 50-DMA – 9060
GOLD –  holding at 1,770 area –  third attempt to break-out into the $1,800
USOIL – down to $37.8 triggered by its failure to cross a short-term horizontal resistance stretched from June 10.
TODAY:  BOE governor Bailey to speak later today, Germany states’ CPI readings, UK-EU trade talks resume, US Pending Home Sales, Japanese labor data and 2020 US Election in focus
Biggest mover – EURUSD (UP  by 0.44%). The pair is edging up ahead of EU preliminary inflation figures, while the view on the EU’s proposed EUR 750 bln fund,  the creation of AAA asset which will attract inflows from real money investors expected to support EURUSD this quarter. Currently slopes above 200-hour EMA breaking R2 at 1.1260 as fast MA’s aligned higher. Momentum indicators turn positive with MACD rising above neutral, RSI at 67, and Stochastic flattened at 79. ATR for H1 at 0.0009 and Daily ATR at 0.0091

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