Virus numbers continue rising

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Daily Outlook – 26 June 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

Virus numbers continue rising Texas & Florida front & center, New positive COVID-19 cases in the US hit a new high June 25 (38,672), surpassing the prior high from April 25 (36,006). A 7-day moving average of new cases hit its highest level since April 12. Re-openings halted in several states. Equities recover & move up 1%, USD drifts but hold gains (USDIndex 97.30), Gold – 1760, and USOil. 14 consecutive weeks US Unemployment claims over 1 million, a total of 47 million since pandemic hit the US. Durable Goods are much better than expected.

USDIndex – down from 97.55 high – to 97.30 – PP today at 97.35, S1 97.10 & R1 97.60
EUR – fell to test under 1.1200 yesterday – now back to PP at 1.1220 R1 1.1255, S1 1.1185
JPY – 107.45 (R1) peak yesterday – now down to test 107.00 again. PP 107.20, S1 106.95
GBP – trades at PP 1.2425 – under 1.2400 yesterday – S1 1.2378, R1 1.2450
AUD – up to R1 & 200MA – 0.6890 now – PP 0.6870, S1 0.6845
NZD – up to R1 & 200MA 0.6445 now. PP 0.6420 S1 0.6400
CAD – up to 10-day high yesterday 1.3670 (R1). Now 1.3640 (PP) – S1 1.3607
CHF – brief breach of 0.9500 yesterday – now at PP 0.9485 R1 0.9505, S1 09470
BTC – – at PP $9,160 – R1 & 200hrMA $9375, s1 $9025

GOLD – holds at PP 1760. R1 1770, s1 1752
USOil – fell under S1 to $37.15 yesterday – now back to $39.00 and R1. PP $38.00, R2 $39.65

USA500 – closed at 3083 +33 & +1.1% -. FUTS down at 3077.

Today – US personal income, PCE & core PCE price index, Uni. of Michigan (F), ECB’s Schnabel

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.20%) – RBNZ Dovishness brushed off continued yesterday’s move from 0.8720 lows. Over and holds 50 & 200 MA. Moved to R1 at 08765. Faster MA’s aligned higher; Stochs & RSI moving higher. MACD Histogram and Signal line both moving higher & over 0. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0067.


Risk Warning: Trading-Leveraged Products such as Forex and Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience, before trading, and if necessary, seek independent advice.

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