Risk-Off to end the week.

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Daily Outlook – 12 June 2020

By: Stuart Cowell

USD, JPY CHF & Gold on the safe-haven bid as AUD and EM currency’s slide, Oil and Equities TANKED. Triple peaks of FED glumness, virus re-emergence, and for equities a sudden retrace having got to all-time highs. Another dose of weak data (JPY Ind. Production worse than expected at -9.8%, UK Data also worse than expected GDP -20.4% vs -18.6%, Manu Production -24.3% vs -15%, Ind. Prod -20.3% vs -15% Construction Output -40% vs -24%.

USDIndex – safe-haven rally from sub 96.00 – to test 97.00 (r3). Now at 96.70 (r2) R1 96.40
EUR – fell below 1.1300 (S2) into 200hr MA at 1.1285. PP 1.1370, S1 1.1345, pivots at 1.1300 now
JPY – 106.55 was the latest low. PP 106.82, R1 107.05. Trades at 107.11.
GBP – declined to S2 and 1.2545, backtesting 1.2600 now. S1-1.2615, PP 1.2685
AUD – clined into 0.6800 (S2) – back to S1 now at 0.6855, PP 0.6925
NZD – under 0.6400 (S2) earlier – trades at s1 0.6445
CAD – over 1.3600 now (r2) 300+ pip rally from 1.3310 low on Wednesday
CHF – down to 0.9380 recovered to 0.9450 now
BTC – another attempt at 10k thwarted – trades at 9780

GOLD – rallied to 1745 Back to 1730 & PP
USOil – tanked to 34.35 & S2) – back to 35.00 now

USA500 – Closed (-5.89%, -188 pts) 3002-. FUTS up to 3040 Today – US Import Prices, CAD Utilization rate & UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.35%) – Fell from 75.50 highs Wednesday to 72.70 lows today and now recovered to 73.60. Crossing EMA Triggered higher at 07:00. Fast MA aligned higher, Stochs OB, RSI (48 & rising). MACD Histogram and Signal line both negative but turning. H1 ATR 0.2850, Daily ATR 1.200.


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