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By: Andria Pichidi
- Trade balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade surplus is expected to shrink in May from $45.33B to $39.00B.
- Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japan is expected to confirm contraction of tis economy with a -0.9% drop in the first quarter of the year.
Monday – 08 June 2020
- Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German Industrial Production is expected to decline further at 15.5% in April compared to the -9.2% decline seen in March.
Tuesday – 09 June 2020
- Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q1’s GDP is expected to confirm a contraction to -3.8% q/q and -3.2% y/y.
Wednesday – 10 June 2020
- Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in May at 3.7% y/y, despite the -0.5% drop in the monthly basis.
- Consumer Price Index (USD, 12:30) – The US May headline CPI is seen to drop with a flat core price rate, following respective April readings of -0.8% and -0.4%. The headline will be restrained by an estimated -2.2% May drop for CPI gasoline prices. As-expected May figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 0.3%, steady from 0.3% in April. Core prices should set a 1.3% y/y rise, a down-tick from 1.4% y/y last month.
- Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00-18:30) – In the last FOMC minutes of April 28-29 policy meeting, the committee made it clear that they are not considering implementing negative policy rates anytime soon. The minutes reiterated that while the current stance was seen as “appropriate,” the Committee could “clarify” its forward guidance (which it didn’t really give because of the unprecedented uncertainties). A “date-based” approach could also be considered that would specify a time period for current policy accommodation. As Chair Powell has indicated, the Fed is fighting to make sure that lasting damage isn’t done to the economy, so that liquidity problems don’t turn into solvency problems.
Thursday – 11 June 2020
- Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The PPI, the headline inflation figures will be depressed by oil prices, while the core figures face divergent pressures that have thus far been downward on net, via diminished demand, though with risk of price boosts from supply disruptions for some components. The Fed will have plenty of elbow room for an easy money policy over the coming quarters.
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims fell -249k to 1,877k in the week ended May 30 after declining -320k to 2,126k (was 2,123k) in the prior week. This is the 9th straight week of declines.
Friday – 12 June 2020
- EcoFin Meeting (EUR, Full Post) – European Finance Ministers are to convene on a variety of topics.
- Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment slipped to 72.3 in the final May print from the University of Michigan Survey, weaker than expected and down from 73.7 in the preliminary May report. However, it’s still a little better than the 8-year low of 71.8 from April. June’s preliminary release is expected to show an increase to 75.0.
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